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We model U.S. post-WWII monthly data with a Smooth Transition VAR model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions....
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The empirical literature on central banking has found measures of central bank independence/conservatism to be …. We find that an increase in central bank conservatism leads to higher short-term interest rates and a more activist … economy, higher output and somewhat lower inflation. We also investigate the interaction between the central bank and the …
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welfare gain associated with making the central bank less conservative than society, however if the outside option is in real … of central bank conservatism. …
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distribution in the European Central Bank (ECB) council. We show that, in a model where labor unions internalize the inflationary …
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representation in a federal central bank addressing this question. Optimal voting weights reflect two opposing forces: the wish to …
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