adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional …

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country … groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more … negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast …

Do Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) suffer from a debt overhang? Is debt relief going to improve their growth … rates? To answer these important questions, we look at how the debt-growth relationship varies with indebtedness levels and … relationship between debt and growth at intermediate levels of debt, but not at very low debt levels, below the “debt overhang …