This paper provides evidence on the degree of persistence of one of the key components of the CAPM, namely the market risk premium, as well as its volatility. The analysis applies fractional integration methods to data for the US, Germany and Japan, and for robustness purposes considers...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

This paper analyses trends and persistence in atmospheric pollution in ten US cities over the period from January 2014 to January 2024 using fractional integration methods. The results support the hypothesis of long memory and mean reversion in atmospheric pollution in all cities examined. They...

The financial means of international terror and organized crime organizations are analysed. First, some short remarks about the organization of international terror organizations are made. Second and in a much more detailed way a literature review is provided about the financing of terrorist and...

The relationship between corruption and the shadow economy is not clear. Theoretically, they either substitute or complement each other - exhibiting either a negative or positive relationship. This paper - using a structural equation model with two latent variables - extracts information on...

In this paper we analyze the influence of direct democratic institutions on the size and development of the shadow economies. The framework developed predicts a negative relationship between the degree of direct democracy and the size of the shadow economy. Countries where direct democratic...