Two different types of tests for the cointegrating rank of VAR processes with a deterministic shift in the level have been proposed in the literature. The first proposal is based on the LR principle using a specific Gaussian model set-up. In the second proposal the time series are adjusted for...

Newly developed and advanced methods for nonlinear time series analysis are in general not available in standard software packages. Moreover, their implementation requires substantial time, computing power as well as programming skills. The recent results on lag and bandwidth selection methods...

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

Unit root tests are considered for time series which have a level shift at a known point in time. The shift can have a very general nonlinear form and additional deterministic mean and trend terms are allowed for. Prior to the tests the deterministic parts and other nuisance parameters of the...

Single index models are frequently used in econometrics and biometrics. Logit and Probit models are special cases with fixed link functions. In this paper we consider a bootstrap specification test that detects nonparametric deviations of the link function. The bootstrap is used with the aim to...

Recent investigations of the transmission mechanism of German monetary policy arrive at quite different conclusions regarding its stability during the period of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank. In this study small dynamic models for the monetary sector of the German economy are analyzed in...

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

The small sample properties of two types of Chow tests are investigated in the context of multiple time series models. It is found that the tests may have substantially distorted size if the sample size is not large relative to the number of parameters in the model under study. In particular the...

The properties of a range of maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process are compared. The tests are alilikelihood ratio type tests and operate under different assumptions regarding the deterministic part of the data generation process. The...