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How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018

We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011958891

Low frequency and weighted likelihood solutions for mixed frequency dynamic factor models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I. P. - 2014

The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391543

Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571

Social capital and crises with an application to Iceland

Thorvaldur Gylfason - 2015

Economic growth is propelled in part by the accumulation of different kinds of capital, including social capital in its several guises. This paper considers the interplay between financial crises and various aspects of social capital which, if it is allowed to depreciate, can undermine economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288794

Going to extremes : politics after financial crisis, 1870 - 2014

Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015

Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349087

Toward a unified framework of credit creation

Becke, Susanne von der; Sornette, Didier - 2014

We identify the origin of the contradicting perspectives on credit creation offered by Austrian, Mainstream and Post Keynesian economists as the neglect of the primacy of such assets as goods, properties and securities, which always pre-exist any transaction and loan. We develop a unified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337985

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

Guo, Xu; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing Keung; Zhu, Lixing - 2016

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441491

The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763

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