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Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and...
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This paper adopts a VAR-GARCH approach to model the dynamic linkages between both the mean and the variance of macro … Gold and Silver. Volatility spillovers are bigger in size and affect most commodity returns. Both firstand second moment … financial assets, are sensitive to macro news (especially their volatility), and also suggest that the global financial crisis …
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If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their...
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