The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital, investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of...

This is a simulation-based warning note for practitioners who use the MGLS unit root tests in the context of structural change using different selection lag length criteria. With T=100 , we find severe oversize problems when using some criteria, while other criteria produce an undersizing...

This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regression models including deterministic variables and integrated processes, as well as integer powers, of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be...

We show using detailed firm-level Chinese data that, among small exporters, firms selling to a more diversified set of countries have more volatile exports, while the opposite holds among large exporters. This result, which stands in marked contrast to standard portfolio theory for small...

This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative...

In this paper we explore the role that demand uncertainty plays for the offshoring decision, and the role that offshoring plays for domestic volatility of employment. Offshoring is modeled as in Antràs & Helpman (2004), but we assume complete contracts. Firms are heterogeneous as in Melitz...

Inequalities between workers of different skills have been growing in the era of globalization. Firms' internationalization mode has an impact on job stability. Exporting firms are not only exposed to different foreign shocks, they also pay skill-intensive fixed costs to serve foreign markets....

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011-2015. Our...

We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...