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Fiscal consolidation in the euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs

Coenen, Günter (contributor); Mohr, Matthias (contributor); … - 2008

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. Coenen et al., 2007). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778833

The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area : a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis

Christoffel, Kai (contributor); Coenen, Günter (contributor) - 2008

In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003790951

Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area : a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model

Coenen, Günter (contributor); McAdam, Peter (contributor); … - 2007

In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003457015

Forecasting with DSGE models

Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - 2010

growth over the forecast evaluation period and, therefore, it tends to overestimate nominal wages. As a consequence, both the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003972991

Fiscal policy and the "Great Recession" in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765223

Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765957

Smells like fiscal policy? : assessing the potential effectiveness of the ECB's OMT program

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Siemsen, Thomas; … - 2014

This paper explores the potential effectiveness of the ECBś Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) program in safeguarding an appropriate monetary policy transmission. Since the program aims at manipulating bank lending rates by conducting sovereign bond purchases on secondary markets, a stable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010246072

Unexpected loan losses and bank capital in an estimated DSGE model of the Euro area

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver - 2016

We develop a stylized DSGE model in which banks face capital regulation and their loan portfolios are subject to non-diversifiable losses due to aggregate shocks. The framework is used to explore the importance of the interaction between macroeconomic conditions, credit default and bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557772

The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area

Adalid, Ramón; Coenen, Günter; McAdam, Peter; … - 2005

In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimised interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area which differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioural elements and adherence to micro-foundations. Our findings are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003001830

Does government spending crowd in private consumption? : Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area

Coenen, Günter (contributor); Straub, Roland (contributor) - 2005

In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption within an estimated New-Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area featuring non-Ricardian households. Employing Bayesian inference methods, we show that the presence of non-Ricardian households is in general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003057293