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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020645

Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902

Sudden stop: when did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?

Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla; Link, Sebastian - 2020

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249044

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016

We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319

Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

Tracking and predicting the German economy : ifo vs. PMI

Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020

This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766