-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

Surprisingly it did not, or at least not directly. Using micro data on consumer prices and sectoral inflation rates … has altered the behaviour of retail price setting and/or inflation dynamics. We find no evidence that anything has changed … earlier patterns. On the contrary, we do find evidence of a decline in the persistence of the inflation process in the mid …

We investigate co-movements and heterogeneity in inflation dynamics of different regions within and across euro area … countries using a novel disaggregate dataset to improve the understanding of inflation differentials in the European Monetary … Union. We employ a model where regional inflation dynamics are explained by common euro area and country specific factors as …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

changes does not change much with inflation and does not react much to aggregate shocks; (vi) changes in inflation are mostly … consistent with the predictions of a menu cost model in a low inflation environment where idiosyncratic shocks are a more …

This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We … combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector Autore … asymmetries and seasonal responses of inflation to temperature shocks, mainly via food, energy, and service prices. An increase in …

sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further …