We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...

Swap lines between advanced-economy central banks are a new important part of the global financial architecture. This paper analyses their monetary policy effects from three perspectives. First, from the perspective of the central banks, it shows that the swap line mimics discount-window credit...

We empirically analyze how bank lending reacts to monetary policy in the presence of global financial flows. Employing a unique and novel dataset of the funding modes and currency composition of the full population of Norwegian banks in structurally identified regressions, we show that the...

This paper investigates the PPP and UIP conditions by taking into account possible nonlinearities as well as the role of Taylor rule deviations under alternative monetary policy frameworks. The analysis is conducted using monthly data from January 1993 to December 2020 for five...

In this paper we re-consider the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates and forward premia. In the recent empirical literature, these effects have been predominantly described as puzzling, in that they would include delayed overshooting of the exchange rate as well as persistent...

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC...

Recognizing the profound influence of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on financial investment behaviour, this study uses a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of rising geopolitical risk on sovereign debt holdings for a panel of 24 OECD economies from Q1 2004 to Q4 2023. To do...

We develop a model of education where individuals face educational risk. Successfully entering the skilled labor sector depends on individual effort in education and public resources, but educational risk still causes (income) inequality. We show that an optimal public policy consists of...

This paper shows that the combination of habit formation - present consumption creating additional consumption needs in the future - and myopia may explain why some retirees are forced to "unretire", i.e., unexpectedly return to work. It also shows that when myopia about habit formation leads to...