This paper aims to assess the role of expectations as a determinant of the real price of natural gas. To measure … consistently with the theory of storage (Kilian and Murphy, 2014), the futures spread (Valenti, 2022), and functional shocks … expectations, especially when measured as functional shocks, lead to strong and persistent increases in the real price of natural …

The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate …. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price …

shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike … winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and …