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To consolidate or not to consolidate? : a multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Jalles, João Tovar - 2022

We assess the specific need (or its absence) of a country to implement a fiscal consolidation programme by focusing specifically on their degree of success, notably in terms of fiscal sustainability. The "need" to consolidate is based on having a primary balance above or below the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938962

Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?

Afonso, António; Alves, José - 2022

We evaluate the impact of government spending efficiency on fiscal sustainability for a panel of 35 OECD countries during the period of 2007-2020. To answer our research question we first compute the magnitude of the responses of government revenues to changes in government spending. Next, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013187684

Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union

Afonso, António - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 35 (2008) 3, pp. 313-334

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726486

The pressure is on : how geopolitical tensions impact institutional fiscal and external stability responses

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2024

In this article, we study the effects of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients. We use Schlicht’s (2021) methodology to estimate time-varying fiscal and external sustainability coefficients for the EU for 27 economies between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517944

What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? : a panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641707

The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn's (1998) approach through Schlicht's (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313459

Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes : a panel analysis of the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary policy surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal stances in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4 for a panel of the 19 countries of the Euro Area. Applying local projection methodology, we find that the effect of monetary shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014336399

Does monetary policy influence Euro area fiscal sustainability?

Afonso, António; Pereira, Francisco Gomes - 2024

This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. Our sample includes 12 euro area countries and covers the period from 2003:Q1 to 2022:Q4. We extend a fiscal reaction function (Bohn’s rule) by including the monetary policy stance as an interaction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015046233

Consumption patterns of indebted households : unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy

Afonso, António; Rodrigues, Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão - 2023

consumption in two different samples and two measures of household debt to provide a comprehensive analysis of the topic. We used … fiscal impulses increase private consumption, but when households are highly indebted, patterns change, and increased … government spending or reduced taxes, in the presence of high indebtedness, actually discourage household consumption compared to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014314290

Bank regulation and sovereign risk : a paradox

Afonso, António; Teixeira, André - 2023

This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281475