Showing 1 - 10 of 14
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for … selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard … therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
How do changes in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) scores influence banks’ systemic risk contribution? We document a beneficial impact of the ESG Combined Score and Governance pillar on banks’ contribution to system-wide distress analysing a panel of 367 publicly listed banks from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169195
Do macroprudential regulations on residential lending influence commercial lending behavior too? To answer this question, we identify the compositional changes in banks' supply of credit using the variation in their holdings of residential mortgages on which extra capital requirements were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643066
What is the impact of policy interventions on the systemic risk of banks? To answer this question, we analyze a comprehensive sample that combines an original set of bank-specific bailout events with balance sheets of key affected and non-affected European banks between 2005 and 2014. We find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419677
We examine whether the relationship between managerial risk-taking incentives and bank risk is sensitive to the underlying macroeconomic conditions. We find that risk-taking incentives provided to bank executives are associated with higher bank riskiness during economic downturns. We attribute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271222