Showing 1 - 10 of 10
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for … selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard … therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
We investigate whether bank performance during the recent credit crisis is related to chief executive officer (CEO) incentives before the crisis. We find some evidence that banks with CEOs whose incentives were better aligned with the interests of shareholders performed worse and no evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970468
We investigate whether a bank’s performance during the 1998 crisis, which was viewed at the time as the most dramatic crisis since the Great Depression, predicts its performance during the recent financial crisis. One hypothesis is that a bank that has an especially poor experience in a crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009240510
From 1973 to 2014, the common stock of U.S. banks with loan growth in the top quartile of banks over a three-year period significantly underperforms the common stock of banks with loan growth in the bottom quartile over the next three years. The benchmark-adjusted cumulative difference in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516043
Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19 shock and benefit less from policy responses. We find that firms with high financial flexibility within an industry experience a stock price drop lower by 26% or 9.7 percentage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216704