Showing 1 - 10 of 11
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for … selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard … therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both … powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219339
This article examines the recent regulatory developments with regard to short selling. Short selling regulation is an important factor in firm governance because it affects the way in which firms are subject to market discipline. We begin with a comprehensive compilation of emergency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970469
We argue that incentives to take equity risk ("equity incentives") only partially capture incentives to take asset risk ("asset incentives"). This is because leverage, while central to the theory of risk shifting, is not explicitly considered by equity incentives. Employing measures of asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003979511
In the build-up to and especially in the weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, stocks strongly exposed to the regulatory risks of the transition to a low-carbon economy did well, suggesting an expected slow-down of that transition. Analysts increased their earnings estimates for these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013192064
During the COVID-19 market crash, U.S. stocks with higher institutional ownership -- in particular, those held more by active, short-term, and more exposed institutions -- performed worse. Portfolio changes through the first quarter of 2020 reveal that institutional investors prioritized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271074