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Since the 1970s, exports and imports of manufactured goods have been the engine of international trade and much of that trade relies on container shipping. This paper introduces a new monthly index of the volume of container trade to and from North America. Incorporating this index into a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550202
We model U.S. post-WWII monthly data with a Smooth Transition VAR model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864417
In the debate about relocation to the developing countries of “structurally weak” industries the clothing industry has attracted the special interest of academic and political economists in the Federal Republic of Germany. The following article constitutes a summary of the most important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554292
Stehen die USA vor einer Rezession und wenn ja, hat die europäische Politik Grund zur Sorge? Wie groß ist das Risiko … für die europäische Wirtschaft und welche Gegenmaßnahmen sollten in Europa eingeleitet werden? Andreas Rees, UniCredit …, Deutschland, sieht die US-Wirtschaft nicht kurz vor, sondern schon in einer Rezession: "Etliche gängige Konjunkturindikatoren …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005013260
Die weltwirtschaftliche Entwicklung ist im Frühsommer 2004 aufwärts gerichtet. Die USA, Südostasien, Japan und - wenn … Rohstoffpreisen. Auch lassen die stimulierenden Wirkungen von Geld- und Fiskalpolitik nach. Die deutsche Konjunktur allerdings zeigt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005048038
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003717913
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807913
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