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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in the EMU : a dynamic game approach
Aarle, Bas van; Engwerda, Jacob Christiaan; Plasmans, … - 2001
The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is a crucial issue in a highly integrated economic area as the European Union. We argue that EMU, which introduced a common monetary policy and restrictions on fiscal policy at the national level, increases the need for macroeconomic policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398097
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319
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Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750
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Real-time state-space method for computing smoothed estimates of future revisions of U.S. monthly chained CPI
Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016
Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474973
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Staying together or breaking apart : policy-makers endogenous coalitions formation in the European economic and monetary union
Aarle, Bas van; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Engwerda, … - 2002
In this paper, we analyze coordination of macroeconomic stabilization policies within the EMU by focusing, in a dynamic set-up, on asymmetries, externalities, and the existence of a multi-country context. We study how coalitions among fiscal and monetary authorities are formed and what are their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410410
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Looking into the black box of boosting : the case of Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2015
This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for … selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard … therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839
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Tracking and predicting the German economy : ifo vs. PMI
Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020
This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766
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Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2019
Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466