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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Social capital and crises with an application to Iceland
Thorvaldur Gylfason - 2015
Economic growth is propelled in part by the accumulation of different kinds of capital, including social capital in its several guises. This paper considers the interplay between financial crises and various aspects of social capital which, if it is allowed to depreciate, can undermine economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288794
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Leaning against the wind and crisis risk
Schularick, Moritz; Ter Steege, Lucas; Ward, Felix - 2020
Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial stability. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the 19th...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012260596
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Market depth, leverage, and speculative bubbles
Enders, Zeno; Hakenes, Hendrik - 2017
We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size. In a bubble, traders push the asset price above its fundamental value in a dynamic way, driven by rational expectations about future price developments. At a previously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780495
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Macroeconomic fluctuations in a stylized DSGE model with disequilibrium dynamics
Aarle, Bas van - 2012
This study develops a stylised DSGE model, that departs in one aspect: it replaces the general equilibrium approach by disequilibrium economics. In this way, richer macroeconomic adjustment dynamics result, as it is not necessary to assume that goods and labour markets continuously clear. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009683161
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Strategic interactions between fiscal and monetary authorities in a multi-country new-Keynesian model of a monetary union
Michalak, Tomasz; Engwerda, Jacob Christiaan; Plasmans, … - 2009
In this paper we consider a number of key issues related to the policy coordination in a monetary union that has been recently discussed in the literature. To this end we propose a multi-country New-Keynesian model of a monetary union cast in the framework of linear quadratic differential games....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807838
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Theory and practice of GVAR modeling
Chudik, Alexander; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014
The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354717
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319
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Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750