inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …

This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

estimating a smooth transition regression model with different inflation expectations regimes for five inflation targeting …) respectively over the period January 1993-August 2021. Both market and survey measures of inflation expectations are used as the … expectations of both consumers and producers are considered instead of expectations from consumer surveys only. Finally, inflation …

food market. Both are then included in structural VAR models to examine their effects on domestic food price inflation for … analysis is carried out to assess the effects on core inflation. The results suggest that both global food price mean and … volatility shocks have sizeable effects on food price inflation in all countries and persistent second-round effects on core …

This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i … out to investigate second-round effects on inflation through the inflation expectations channel. These are found to be … shock decomposition exercise show that inflation and inflation expectations are primarily driven by changes in the curvature …