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What do we know about the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy? : a brief survey of the literature on fiscal multipliers

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Lim, Guay C. - 2018

This article reviews recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal-monetary policy mix are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933907

Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018

This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive … of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in M2 in the 1921-1940 period. This evidence, which is consistent … with the Keynesian view on a liquidity trap, is shown to be state contingent. In particular, it emerges only when a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616

Credibility and transparency of Central Banks : new results based on Ifo s world economicy survey

Hamella, Sandra; Haan, Jakob de - 2004

This paper reports the results of a survey among private sector economists about credibility and transparency of central banks. In line with the survey of Alan Blinder among central bankers, we asked participants in Ifo s World Economic Survey to answer questions on the importance and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399168

Are fiscal multipliers estimated with proxy-SVARs robust?

Angelini, Giovanni; Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2020

How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249273

Using real-time data to test for political budget cycles

Jong-A-Pin, Richard; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - 2012 - This version: September 2012

We use real-time annual data on the fiscal balance, government current spending, current revenues and net capital outlays as published at a half yearly frequency in the OECD Economic Outlook for 25 OECD countries. For each fiscal year t we have a number of forecasts, a first release, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621694

The end of the stability and growth pact?

Haan, Jakob de; Berger, Helge; Jansen, David-Jan - 2003

This paper evaluates the Stability and Growth Pact. After examining the rules in place and the experience so far, the Pact is analysed from a political economy perspective, focusing on the choice for so-called soft law and drawing inferences from characteristics of successful fiscal rules at the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011404430

Has the stability and growth pact impeded political budget cycles in the European Union?

Mink, Mark (contributor); Haan, Jakob de (contributor) - 2005

This paper examines whether there is a political budget cycle (PBC) in countries in the euro area. Using a multivariate model for the period 1999-2004 and various election indicators we find strong evidence that the Stability and Growth Pact has not restricted fiscal policy makers in the euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003120672

The impact of product and labour market reform on growth : evidence for OECD countries based on local projections

Haan, Jakob de; Wiese, Rasmus - 2020

This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on economic growth in 25 OECD countries between 1985 and 2013, and tests whether this impact is conditioned by the fiscal policy stance, i.e. whether there are fiscal expansions or adjustments. Our local projection results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012238489

Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in emerging market and developing economies

Haan, Jakob de; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2023

The widening of fiscal deficits during democratic elections is well established. We examine a broader set of fiscal outcomes around elections for a large set of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447806

Risk management-driven policy rate gap

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Nodari, Gabriela - 2018

We employ real-time data available to the US monetary policy makers to estimate a Taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969-2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011884396