Lahiri, Kajal; Monokroussos, George; Zhao, Yongchen - 2012
While the yield spread has long been recognized as a good predictor of recessions, it seems to have been largely …-rich environment including not just the yield spread but many other predictors as well. We confirm the puzzle in this context by … examining the contributions of both the SPF forecasts and the yield spread in predicting recessions, and by examining the …