common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a large dataset of disaggregated industrial … production series for the US economy. Our results indicate that common uncertainty and uncertainty linked to nondurable goods … both recorded their pre-pandemic global peaks during the 1973-75 recession. In contrast, durable goods uncertainty recorded …

degree of pessimism of the representative agent is the mean of the individual ones weighted by their index of absolute risk …

We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an …

In this paper we offer an analysis of the effects of uncertainty about future tax policy on irreversible investment …. The main message of the paper is that investment is not much affected by the degreee of tax policy uncertainty. This is … that reducing tax policy uncertainty is probably no magic bullet to increase private investment spending …

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different … measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in … which agents cannot perfectly observe the state of current productivity, can generate the observed asymmetry in the risk …

) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment … ex ante "news" or "uncertainty shocks" in real time, and find that this 'news' is closely related to revisions in … forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that …

-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature … focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part proposes a novel measure … of global financial uncertainty and shows that its unexpected variations are associated to statistically and economically …

How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very …, and once during a period of very high uncertainty. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in eligibility and using rich … administrative data, we find that firms exposed to high uncertainty decide to “wait and see” before investing, despite generous …

-form expressions of welfare loss from shocks and epistemological uncertainty identify the interaction of (intertemporal) risk attitude … is comparable to numeric models used in policy advising. Uncertainty surrounding climate change remains large. The closed …, distributional moments, and the climatic shadow values. Welfare gains from reducing uncertainty about temperature feedbacks are much …

and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and … show that uncertainty not only determines the type of cooperative policy but also whether countries want to cooperate at … all. Countries facing larger model disagreement also need to face larger uncertainty with respect to policy spillovers to …