Showing 1 - 10 of 546
The currency market features a relatively small cross-section and conditional expected returns can be characterized by only a few signals - interest differentials, trend, and mean-reversion. We exploit these properties to construct a conditional projection of the stochastic discount factor onto...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482479
This paper develops an explicitly stochastic new open economy macroeconomics' model, which can potentially be used to explore the qualitative and quantitative welfare differences between alternative exchange rate regimes. A crucial feature is that we do not simplify by assuming certainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472119
A growing literature documents the existence of strategic political reactions to public expenditure in one jurisdiction on either neighboring or reference jurisdictions. The latter might give raise to downward expenditure spiral, or "race to the bottom". However, in ascertaining the empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010479922
We employ a mixed-frequency quantile regression approach to model the time-varying conditional distribution of the US real GDP growth rate. We show that monthly information on the US financial cycle improves the predictive power of an otherwise quarterly-only model. We combine selected quantiles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013440379
This paper examines the determination of risk premiums in foreign exchange markets. The statistical model is based on a theoretical model of asset pricing, which leads to severe cross-equation constraints. Statistical tests lead to a rejection of these constraints. We examine the robustness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477919
Recognizing the profound influence of geopolitical risks and world uncertainty on financial investment behaviour, this study uses a comprehensive approach to assess the impact of rising geopolitical risk on sovereign debt holdings for a panel of 24 OECD economies from Q1 2004 to Q4 2023. To do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014632361
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003635206
We define an indirect evolutionary approach formally and apply it to (Tullock) contests. While it is known (Leininger, 2003) that the direct evolutionary approach in the form of finite population ESS (Schaffer, 1988) yields more aggressive behavior than in Nash equilibrium, it is now shown that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003730276
This paper investigates the relationship between electoral incentives, institutions and corruption. We assume that voters use a yardstick criterion. The incumbent provides a public good and extracts rent, which are financed by imposing a distortionary tax. We demonstrate the possibility that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003730296
We develop a model of education where individuals face educational risk. Successfully entering the skilled labor sector depends on individual effort in education and public resources, but educational risk still causes (income) inequality. We show that an optimal public policy consists of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003730305