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Measuring the economic risk of epidemics
Noy, Ilan; Nguyen Doan; Ferrarini, Benno; Park, Donghyun - 2019
epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the … local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the … zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156716
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Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks
Hong, Harrison - 2020
epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481801
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Risk Sharing Externalities
Bocola, Luigi - 2020
aggregate risk. We propose a theory to explain these risk exposures. We study a financial accelerator model where entrepreneurs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481941
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Stimulating Demand for AIDS Prevention : Lessons from the RESPECT Trial
de Walque, Damien - 2012
HIV-prevention strategies have yielded only limited success so far in slowing down the AIDS epidemic. This paper …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460794
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How do pandemics end? : two decades of recurrent outbreak risk following the main waves
Schroeder, Max; Lazarakis, Spyridon; Mancy, Rebecca; … - 2021
The risk of recurrent outbreaks following the main waves of a pandemic has been acknowledged. We provide evidence of the scale and duration of this outbreak risk. We compile municipal public health records and use national data to model the stochastic process of mortality rates after the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012698777
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The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk
Fan, Victoria Y. - 2016
1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456538
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Bank Trading Risk and Systemic Risk
Jorion, Philippe - 2005
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The overall picture from these preliminary results is that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467650
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Estimating the Tradeoff Between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance
Kowalski, Amanda E. - 2012
Insurance induces a well-known tradeoff between the welfare gains from risk protection and the welfare losses from moral hazard. Empirical work traditionally estimates each side of the tradeoff separately, potentially yielding mutually inconsistent results. I develop a nonlinear budget set model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460552
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Restrictions on risk prices in dynamic term structure models
Bauer, Michael D. - 2015
Restrictions on the risk-pricing in dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) can unleash the power of no-arbitrage by creating a tighter link between cross-sectional and time-series variation of interest rates. This paper presents a new econometric framework for estimation of affine Gaussian DTSMs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491726
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Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Bekaert, Geert - 2016
We extract aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks for the US economy from macroeconomic data on inflation, real GDP growth, core inflation and the unemployment gap. We first use unconditional non-Gaussian features in the data to achieve identification of these structural shocks while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455841