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Sector specific news shocks in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations
Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D. - 2013 - First version: March 2011, This version: May 2013
Using a two-sector estimated DSGE model with a financial channel we show the sector where TFP news arrives matters for its propagation and quantitative importance. Anticipated increases in TFP expected to arrive in the consumption sector are expansionary while those in the investment sector are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009753003
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Time series properties of the German monthly production index
Flaig, Gebhard - 2003
The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514105
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Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises in output
Ridder, Maarten de - 2016
models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a …-level exposure to the 2008-9 financial crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and has … 12% higher today if productivity-enhancing investments had grown at pre-crisis rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573282
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Slow to hire, quick to fire : employment dynamics with asymmetric responses to news
Ilut, Cosmin; Kehrig, Matthias; Schneider, Martin - 2017
Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a unified explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro and micro data. In particular, they generate countercyclical movement in both aggregate conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637667
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The changing nature of technology shocks
Görtz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher M.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2024
identification procedure, we show that the dominant shock driving total factor productivity (TFP) is akin to a diffusion or news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015075006
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In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany
Bandholz, Harm; Funke, Michael - 2001
In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011400394
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Competition and innovation in automobile markets
Ghosal, Vivek; Ni, Jiayao - 2015
Using data from the US automobile market, we empirically examine the link between competition and innovation. Consistent with a large literature, we use patent counts as a measure of innovation. The combination of the US market's economic importance, market dynamics, and the significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342391
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2013
total factor productivity which determines economic activity in the long run, but is not contemporaneously observed by … assessment of productivity - from actual time series, we rely on an informational advantage over market participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224834
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Aging, the great moderation and business-cycle volatility in a life-cycle model
Heer, Burkhard; Rohrbacher, Stefan; Scharrer, Christian - 2014
According to empirical studies, the life cycle of labor supply volatility exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This may lead to the conclusion that demographic change induces a drop in output volatility. We present an overlapping generations model that replicates the empirically observed pattern and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231628
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Sovereigns versus banks : credit, crises, and consequences
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2013
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199757