This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

A Prelude to the Foundation of Political Economy is a groundbreaking volume of theory and strategy on political economy and polity of the twenty-first century. Distilled in concrete terms, it elucidates the enigma of oil in view of the centrality of global social relations.

Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the...

This paper establishes a causal link between the dollar exchange rate and international trade flows, employing a new instrument for the U.S. Dollar that is based on domestic U.S. housing activity (Ma and Zhang (2019)). In line with the dominant currency paradigm (Gopinath et al. (2020)), import...

This paper provides evidence that the U.S. dollar affects countries' exports through the financial channel of the exchange rate (Bruno and Shin (2015)). Using global data on trade between countries whose currency is not the U.S. dollar, it documents a positive relationship between the dollar and...

This book analyzes key international monetary issues from a macro-foundations perspective. It proposes novel frameworks to interpret macroeconomic and financial linkages for globally integrated economies, examining global imbalances, exchange rates, interest rates, international capital flows,...

Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...

Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Oil, Policy and Market Power -- Chapter 3: Looking at the Mirror: Early Days of the Oil Markets in the United States -- Chapter 4: From Competition to Monopoly -- Chapter 5: From Monopoly to Competition (Oil Markets Going Global) -- Chapter 6: Governments...

This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric...