framework. We test the model’s predictions in a laboratory experiment. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic … uncertainty decreases the rate of efficient service provision and leads to less trade. In theory, insurance also decreases the … net effect on welfare. In the experiment, the net effect of insurance coverage on efficiency turns out to be positive. We …

The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about …

Recent interest in "Risk Management"has highlighted the relevance of Bayesian analysis for robust monetary …