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Prediction and identification in two-sided markets
Boik, Andre - 2018
answers and can be used to estimate market power and pass through rates. I show that even a naive one-sided model that ignores …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011789113
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Predictability of asset returns and the efficient market hypothesis
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983206
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A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566
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The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices
Allayioti, Anastasia; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2024
Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486704
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Building daily economic sentiment indicators
Rey del Castillo, Pilar - 2022
The availability of copious amounts of data produced by the increasing datification of our society is nowadays deemed an opportunity to produce timely and convenient statistical information. This paper shows the building of economic sentiment indexes from the texts of the most read economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013453734
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian … random walk benchmark in an out-of-sample environment. Second, lags of investment growth, crude oil price growth and realized … volatility is found to be adequate predictors for the investment growth. Finally, there is a clear benefit from re-estimating the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319
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[Sigma] : the long and short of it
Chirinko, Robert S. (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641757
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Model Averaging in Risk Management with an Application to Futures Markets
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor);  … - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641741
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Forecasting the world economy in the short-term
Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stéphane - 2009
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867019
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Patterns of current account adjustment : insights from past experience
Algieri, Bernardina (contributor);  … - 2007
The paper examines over seventy episodes of current account adjustment in industrial and major emerging market economies. It argues that these episodes were characterised by strongly divergent economic developments. To reduce this divergence, the paper classifies episodes with similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003484088