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Banks' portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Monteiro, Sofia - 2023

We analyze domestic, foreign, and central banks holdings of public debt for 31 countries for the period of 1989-2022, applying panel regressions and quantile analysis. We conclude that an increase in sovereign risk raises the share of domestic banks' portfolio of public debt and reduces the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014383613

Determinants of stock market correlations : accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality in a large panel setting

Afonso, António; Beck, Krzysztof; Jackson, Karen - 2022

We examine 22 determinants of stock market correlations in a panel setting with 651 country pairs of developed economies over the 2001-2018 period, while accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality. On the one hand, we find, that a number of determinants, well established in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013380503

Uncertainty and monetary policy during the great recession

Pellegrino, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Caggiano, Giovanni - 2021

We employ a nonlinear VAR framework and a state-of-the-art identification strategy to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012495676

Financial uncertainty and real activity : the good, the bad, and the ugly

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Delrio, Silvia; … - 2020

This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (i.e., the magnifying effect of the real impact of uncertainty shocks due to financial frictions) by relying on two historical events related to the US economy, i.e., the large jump in financial uncertainty occurred in October 1987 (which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012245103

Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018

This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616

The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Kima, Richard - 2020

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213164

"Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? : bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects

Afonso, António; Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Gadea, … - 2017

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972

Uncertainty across volatility regimes

Angelini, Giovanni; Bacchiocchi, Emanuele; Caggiano, … - 2017

We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778668

Global uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431805

Bank regulation and sovereign risk : a paradox

Afonso, António; Teixeira, André - 2023

This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential … regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation … have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more government debt over time. We find that prudential regulation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281475