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What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? : a panel data diagnostic

Afonso, António (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641707

Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2009

period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based … budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France … deficit ; external imbalance ; real exchange rates ; EU ; OECD …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003818006

Short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields

Afonso, António - 2010

-term yields ; EU ; financial integration ; panel cointegration ; bootstrap …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732265

3-Step analysis of public finances sustainability : the case of the European Union

Afonso, António (contributor); … - 2008

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF … and revenues via SUR analysis. While results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, fiscal …. -- Fiscal sustainability ; EU ; panel cointegration …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003751092

Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013162289

Twin deficits through the looking glass : time-varying analysis in the euro area

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2022

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813893

"Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? : bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects

Afonso, António; Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Gadea, … - 2017

This paper investigates the role of unconventional monetary policy as a source of time-variation in the relationship between sovereign bond yield spreads and their fundamental determinants. Our results provide evidence of a new bond-pricing regime following the announcement of the Outright...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011735972

Budgetary constrained governments : drivers of time varying fiscal sustainability in OECD countries

Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos - 2024

We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in 20 OECD economies between 1950 and 2019. We find stable long-term relationships between government revenues and expenditures as well as between the primary budget balance and past public debt ratio for the full panel. Performing an expanding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543858

Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Beck, Krzysztof - 2022

We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995 … quantile regression results. Hence, human capital inside the EU is moving in search of higher cross-country earnings. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463673

The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ionta, Serena - 2023

We study the effect of monetary surprise shocks on real output and the price level, conditioned on different fiscal sustainability regimes in the period 2001Q4-2021Q4. First, we estimate time-varying fiscal sustainability coefficients based on Bohn's (1998) approach through Schlicht's (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014313459