We develop a novel two-stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different...

We propose a short-run theory of the extensive margins of trade, comprising the standard international extensive margin and a novel domestic extensive margin. The domestic extensive margin allows identification of globalization and specific policy effects not properly identified in previous...