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Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi - 2022

We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013475251

An empirical investigation into exchange rate regime choice and exchange rate volatility

Berger, Helge; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - 2000

We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781534

Does conservatism matter? : a time series approach to central banking

Berger, Helge; Woitek, Ulrich - 1999

The empirical literature on central banking has found measures of central bank independence/conservatism to be … and conservatism. We avoid these shortcomings by estimating a single-country time series model for the German Bundesbank …. We find that an increase in central bank conservatism leads to higher short-term interest rates and a more activist …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781685

IMF credit: how important are political factors? : a robustness analysis

Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Berger, Helge; Haan, Jakob de - 2002

We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408821

Capital controls and exchange rate regimes : an empirical investigation

Berger, Helge; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - 2001

It is often argued that deregulation of international transactions and its effects on the globalization of financial markets is behind the decline in the attractiveness of fixed exchange rate regimes. We argue that, instead, much of the recently observed decrease in the level of capital controls...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398048

Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models

Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D. - 2015

Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010476670