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Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi - 2022

We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013475251

Modi's "Make in India" industrial reform policy and East Asian flying-geese paradigm

Nam, Chang-woon; Nam, Sumin; Steinhoff, Peter - 2017

The on-going "Make in India" campaign aims at manufacturing revival. Its characteristics resemble East Asian industrial reform and growth policies based on the flying-geese model which highlights "step-by-step" changes in a country's specialisation pattern and global competitiveness accompanied...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646272

Resolving the spanning puzzle in macro-finance term structure models

Bauer, Michael D.; Rudebusch, Glenn D. - 2015

Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010476670

Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs

Bauer, Michael D.; Chernov, Mikhail - 2021 - First draft: January 2021, this draft: June 16, 2021

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050

A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification

Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T. - 2022

High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166391

The Fed's response to economic news explains the "Fed information effect”

Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T. - 2020

, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174827

Market-based monetary policy uncertainty

Bauer, Michael D.; Lakdawala, Aeimit; Mueller, Philippe - 2019

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy uncertainty for the transmission of FOMC actions to financial markets using a novel model-free measure of uncertainty based on derivative prices. We document a systematic pattern in monetary policy uncertainty over the course of the FOMC...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001886

Effects of tax depreciation rules on firms' investment decisions in an inflationary phase : comparison of net present values in selected OECD countries

Nam, Chang-woon - 2001

. Therefore, in periods with inflation generous tax depreciation provisions do not adequately promote private investment as … designed, but partly compensate such losses caused by inflation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399561

Does debt maturity matter for investment decisions?

Nam, Chang-woon; Radulescu, Doina - 2004

case of prevailing inflation, there is a mismatch between the nominal interest rate that is a discounting factor for all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402695

Effects of bracket creep and tax reform on average personal income tax burden in Germany

Nam, Chang-woon; Zeiner, Christoph - 2015

inflation indexation into its personal income tax system in order to re-duce distortions of tax liabilities and additional tax … extent to which the previous reform efforts, made in this country since 1958, have led to the change of the real, inflation …, when the 'hidden' distortion caused by inflation prevails. According to the long-term real view adopted in this study, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392527