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Lockdown policies : a macrodynamic perspective for COVID-19
Busato, Francesco; Chiarini, Bruno; Cisco, Gianluigi; … - 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is producing a global health and economic crisis. The entire globe is facing the trade-off between health and recessionary effects. This paper investigates this trade-off according to a macro-dynamic perspective. We set up and simulate a Dynamic Stochastic General...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012258268
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Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model : an application to the German business cycle
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2017
for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646914
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How strongly did the 2007/08 oil price hike contribute to the subsequent recession?
Carstensen, Kai; Elstner, Steffen; Paula, Georg - 2011
firm level analysis for which we exploit a unique microeconomic data set for Germany. Inspired by this finding, we … subsequent recession in Germany even though it was by far not the main driver. -- oil price shock ; VAR model ; micro data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010510