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Alternative measures for the global financial cycle : do they make a difference?

Tian, Xin; Jacobs, Jan; Haan, Jakob de - 2022

We construct several measures for the global financial cycle using dynamic factor models and data for 25 advanced and emerging countries over 1980-2019. Our results suggest that global cycles in asset prices and capital flows are highly similar and synchronized, especially during crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186798

Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Damette, Olivier; … - 2018

This paper estimates a nonlinear Threshold-VAR to investigate if a Keynesian liquidity trap due to a speculative motive was in place in the U.S. Great Depression and the recent Great Recession. We find clear evidence in favor of a breakdown of the liquidity effect after an unexpected increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863616

The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Kima, Richard - 2020

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213164

Global uncertainty

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2021

the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We … after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431805