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A residual-based threshold method for detection of units that are too big to fail in large factor models

Kapetanios, George; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Reese, Simon - 2018

The importance of units with pervasive impacts on a large number of other units in a network has become increasingly recognized in the literature. In this paper we propose a new method to detect such influential or dominant units by basing our analysis on unit-specific residual error variances...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011942707

Double-question survey measures for the analysis of financial bubbles and crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Johnsson, Ida - 2016

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals.subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586267

Macroprudential capital regulation and fiscal balances in the euro area

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Kolb, Benedikt - 2024

in macroprudential capital regulation. Our findings suggest a dichotomy between country groups. In peripheral countries … core countries, the cyclically adjusted primary balance ratio barely reacts to a sudden tightening in capital regulation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014485633

Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis : evidence for the Euro Area

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2011

This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the Euro Area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis. In particular, we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks, which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009012054

Business cycle effects of credit and technology shocks in a DSGE model with firm defaults

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Xu, TengTeng - 2011

This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the impacts of credit and technology shocks on business cycle dynamics, where firms rely on banks and households for capital financing. Firms are identical ex ante but differ ex post due to different realizations of firm specific technology...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009312180

Financial frictions and inflation differentials in a monetary union

Hristov, Nikolay; Hülsewig, Oliver; Wollmershäuser, Timo - 2010

This paper employs a stylized New Keynesian DSGE model for a monetary union to analyze whether cyclical inflation differentials can be explained by cross-country differences concerning the characteristics of financial markets. Our results suggest that empirically plausible degrees of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732365

Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003662971

Banking regulation and sovereign default risk : how regulation undermines rules

Hülsewig, Oliver; Steinbach, Armin - 2024

Banking regulation invites banks to gamble when buying government bonds that regulators consider to be risk-free. The … regulation in order to enhance their ﬁscal leeway. We examine an unintended side-eﬀect of banking regulation, namely the zero … area periphery countries to a restrictive macroprudential capital regulation shock. We ﬁnd that, unlike in the US, euro …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576947

Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868

Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2004

This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402451