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Business decision-making under uncertainty : evidence from employment and number of businesses

Ghosal, Vivek; Ye, Yang - 2013

Using the framework provided by the asymmetric-information and real-options theories, we examine the impact of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764986

Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses

Ghosal, Vivek; Ye, Yang - 2014

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010428770

Why does idiosyncratic risk increase with market risk?

Bartram, Söhnke M.; Brown, Gregory W.; Stulz, René M. - 2017

help explain the strength of the relation. We find evidence that the relation is weaker for firms with more growth options …, which is con-sistent with the view that such options provide a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011674278

Asymmetries in risk premia, macroeconomic uncertainty and business cycles

Görtz, Christoph; Yeromonahos, Mallory - 2019

A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in recessions and declines much more gradually during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012129784

Mental models in financial markets : how do experts reason about the pricing of climate risk?

Bauer, Rob; Gödker, Katrin; Smeets, Paul; Zimmermann, … - 2024

We investigate financial experts’ beliefs about climate risk pricing and analyze how those beliefs influence stock return expectations. In a comprehensive survey, we elicit experts’ beliefs using both structured and open-ended questions. We establish that most experts share the view that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551420

Export decision under risk

Sousa, José de; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl - 2016

of export shares from the most to the least productive incumbents. Greater skewness of the demand distribution and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934

Earnings dynamics in Germany

Pessoa, Ana Sofia - 2021

This paper documents earnings dynamics over the life-cycle and income level using a large administrative database from German tax records. I find that labor earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. For the bottom earners, large income changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012534545

The risk-adjusted carbon price

Bremer, Ton S. van den; Ploeg, Frederick van der - 2019

We use perturbation methods to derive a rule for the optimal risk-adjusted social cost of carbon (SCC) that incorporates the effects of uncertainties associated with climate and the economy from a calibrated DSGE model. We allow for different aversions to risk and intertemporal fluctuations,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011996310

Uncertainty, skewness, and the business cycle through the midas lens

Castelnuovo, Efrem; Mori, Lorenzo - 2022

uncertainty and skewness. Embedding these measures in a VAR framework, we show that unexpected changes in uncertainty are … associated with an increase in (left) skewness and a downturn in real activity. Empirical findings related to VAR impulse … response of skewness to uncertainty shocks shows that skewness substantially amplifies the recessionary effects of uncertainty. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013440379