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inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013543029
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003498824
type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a permanent rise in real GDP and a fall in inflation. Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257361
excess liquidity reminiscent of the global inflation generated by the weak dollar in the 1970s. -- Inflation ; exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749649
How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082
We model U.S. post-WWII monthly data with a Smooth Transition VAR model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864417
This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European … exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For … the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402440
This paper aims to show why Irving Fisher's own data on interest rates and inflation in New York, London, Paris, Berlin … changes in inflation, not even in the long run. In Fisher's data, interest rates have more persistence than inflation and … change less than inflation over time. The Fisher effect is a misnomer unless it is taken to refer to what Fisher actually …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496089
During the Great Recession, despite the large fall in output, inflation did not fall much. This is known as the missing … inflation during the Great Recession. We show that inflation did not fall much because intermediate goods prices were increasing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011292980
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has … domestic labour cost changes to core CPI inflation decreased from 0.25 in the 1980s to just 0.02 in the 2010s, while the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612957