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This paper shows that the matching function and the Beveridge curve in the United States exhibit strong nonlinearities … over the business cycle. These patterns can be replicated by enhancing a search and matching model with idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444082
We build an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model of unemployment in heterogeneous labor markets. Facing search frictions within markets and reallocation frictions between markets, workers endogenously separate from employment and endogenously reallocate between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009691688
direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807913
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003496720
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003497650
Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421672
Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a possible driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the different dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412767
This paper uses long-range dependence techniques to analyse two important features of the US Federal Funds effective rate, namely its persistence and cyclical behaviour. It examines annual, monthly, bi-weekly and weekly data, from 1954 until 2010. Two models are considered. One is based on an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009687196
demonstrated that the inconclusive evidence is not only caused by measurement problems, estimation method and composition bias as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011449261