Similar Search Results

Inside the crystal ball : new approaches to predicting the gasoline price at the pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas - 2016

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore several new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011429580

A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566

Export decision under risk

Sousa, José de; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl - 2016

Using firm and industry data, we establish two facts: (i) Uncertainty about demand conditions not only reduces export sales and exporting probabilities but also makes exports less sensitive to trade policy; (ii) the most productive exporters are more affected by higher industry-wide expenditure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934

Growth effects of non proprietary innovation

Saint-Paul, Gilles - 2002

We study an endogenous growth model where a profit-motivated R and D sector coexists with the introduction of free blueprints invented by philanthropists. These goods are priced at marginal cost, contrary to proprietary ones which are produced by a monopoly owned by the inventor. We show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409970

Mincer earnings functions for the Netherlands 1962-2012

Hartog, Joop; Gerritsen, Sander - 2016

We extract estimation results on the Mincer earnings function from four earlier studies and add new results from a recent dataset. We analyse differences related to differences in earnings concepts, in sampling frame and differences among studies that cannot be explained. Jointly, the studies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011416388

Subsidizing health-conscious behavior now or later

Danilowicz-Gösele, Kamila; Schwager, Robert - 2016

In a model where consumers have quasi-hyperbolic preferences, we compare immediate subsidies paid for health-conscious consumption and future subsidies rewarding good health outcome. We characterize the subsidy rates which implement the unbiased choice. These rates differ because of two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011420788

Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth

Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco; Long, Ngo Van; Poschke, Markus - 2016 - This Draft: May 25, 2016

There is growing interest in multi-sector models that combine aggregate balanced growth, consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts, with systematic changes in the sectoral allocation of resources, consistent with the Kuznets facts. Although variations in the income elasticity of demand across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011482690

Venture cycles : theory and evidence

Gehrig, Thomas P.; Stenbacka, Rune - 2003

We demonstrate how endogenous information acquisition in venture capital markets creates investment cycles when competing financiers undertake their screening decisions in an uncoordinated way, thereby highlighting the role of intertemporal screening externalities induced by competition among...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506424

On the optimal size of public sector under rent-seeking competition from state coffers

Park, Hyun; Philippopulos, Apostolēs; Vassilatos, Vanghelis - 2003

This paper incorporates competition for fiscal transfers (or, equivalently, rent seeking from state coffers) into a standard general equilibrium model of economic growth and endogenously chosen fiscal policy. The government generates tax revenues, but then each selfinterested individual agent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508090

Searching for Keynes : an essay on the political economy of fiscal policy, with application to Canada, 1870-2000 - revised version

Winer, Stanley L.; Ferris, John Stephen - 2003

Keynes' General Theory (1936) is arguably one of the most important books of the twentieth century. His ideas for … stabilizing the aggregate economy have profoundly influenced economic theory as well as popular opinion about what governments can … and should do with respect to the business cycle. On the other hand, whether Keynesian theory has substantially altered …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509394

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