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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223
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Consumption risk sharing over the business cycle : the role of small firms' access to credit markets
Hoffmann, Mathias; Stewen, Iryna - 2009
Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807913
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When arm's length is too far : relationship banking over the business cycle
Beck, Thorsten; Degryse, Hans; Haas, Ralph de; Horen, … - 2014
Using a novel way to identify relationship and transaction banks, we study how banks' lending techniques affect funding to SMEs over the business cycle. For 21 countries we link the lending techniques that banks use in the direct vicinity of firms to these firms' credit constraints at two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375321
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Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession
Di Nola, Alessandro; Kaas, Leo; Wang, Haomin - 2022
While the COVID-19 pandemic had a large and asymmetric impact on firms, many countries quickly enacted massive business rescue programs which are specifically targeted to smaller firms. Little is known about the effects of such policies on business entry and exit, factor reallocation, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166369
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Is the German Mittelstand more resistant to crises? : empirical evidence from the great recession
Berlemann, Michael; Jahn, Vera; Lehmann, Robert - 2020
attributed to the business model of the German Mittelstand firm. Somewhat surprisingly, this claim has never been backed by … Mittelstand enterprises, defined as owner-managed SMEs. We present supporting evidence for the hypothesis that Mittelstand firms … performed more stable throughout the Great Recession than non-Mittelstand firms. We also show that owner-managed SMEs performed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012388222
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Do economic recessions "squeeze the middle-class"?
Batinti, Alberto; Costa-Font, Joan - 2017 - This version: September 7th, 2017
Economic downturns give rise to unexpected employment shocks that can reshape the distribution of population income, and hence produce a "middle-class squeeze". However, there is limited empirical evidence testing the latter. This paper aims at testing the "middle-class squeeze" hypothesis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011734383
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Fiscal policy and the banking system in Italy : have taxes, public spending and banks been procyclical in the long-run?
Piluso, Giandomenico (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyses the relations between the banking system fluctuations, on one hand, and taxation and public spending, on the other one, using a VECM methodology. We find some evidence of prociclicality of fiscal policy using variables such as government spending, taxes, and primary surplus....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003779453
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Securitization of mortgage debt, asset prices and international risk sharing
Hoffmann, Mathias; Nitschka, Thomas - 2009
We explore the impact of mortgage securitization on the international diversification of macroeconomic risk. By making mortgage-related risks internationally tradeable, securitization contributes considerably to better international consumption risk sharing: we find that countries with the most...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003806732
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Variable selection and inference for multi-period forecasting problems
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2009
This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003807908
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Term structure and cyclicity of value-at-risk : consequences for the solvency capital requirement
Bec, Frédérique; Gollier, Christian - 2009
This paper explores empirically the link between French equities returns Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the state of financial markets cycle. The econometric analysis is based on a simple vector autoregression setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2008Q3, it turns out that the k-year VaR of French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003824669