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The hidden heterogeneity of inflation and interest rate expectations : the role of preferences
Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2022
Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166152
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A note on temporary supply shocks with aggregate demand inertia
Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp - 2022
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886884
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Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy : turkey verifies theory
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Lee, … - 2022
For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013201664
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Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior
Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kara, Ali Hakan; Kısacıkoğlu, … - 2020
Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287994
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Japan's low inflation conundrum
Mayer, Thomas; Schnabl, Gunther - 2022
The paper analyses the reasons for Japan's persistently low inflation since the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy … (low inflation conundrum). It is shown that Japan experienced a structural break from a high-growth period with relatively … creation in Japan's post-bubble period. With the price level being assumed to be dependent on both goods with free market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013284915
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The role of political institutions for the effectiveness of central bank independence
Hielscher, Kai; Markwardt, Gunther - 2011
This paper empirically studies the impact of the quality of political institutions on the link between central bank independence and inflation. Making use of data on the evolution of central bank independence over time and controlling for possible nonlinearities, we employ interaction models to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009012047
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Alternative measures of price inflation and the perception of real income in Germany
Israel, Karl-Friedrich; Schnabl, Gunther - 2020
Since the 1980s inflationary pressures seem to materialize overproportionately outside of the sectors of consumer goods and services. We combine the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices with indices for asset prices, such as stocks and real estate, as well as the costs of public goods to develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291889
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Fighting inflation more effectively without transferring central banks' profits to banks
De Grauwe, Paul; Ji, Yuemei - 2023
The major central banks now operate in a regime of abundance of bank reserves. As a result, they can only raise the money market rate by increasing the rate of remuneration of bank reserves. This, in turn, leads to large transfers of the central banks' profits (and more) to commercial banks that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014422581
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Sixty years of global inflation : a post-GFC update
Auer, Raphael A.; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Schoenle, Raphael - 2024
Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor explains approximately 58% of the variation in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551069
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Around the world with Irving Fisher
Thorvaldur Gylfason; Tómasson Helgi; Gylfi Zoega - 2015
This paper aims to show why Irving Fisher's own data on interest rates and inflation in New York, London, Paris, Berlin, Calcutta, and Tokyo from 1825 to 1927 suggested to him that nominal interest rates adjusted neither quickly nor fully to changes in inflation, not even in the long run. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496089