This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Consumption risk sharing among U.S. federal states increases in booms and decreases in recessions. We find that small firms' access to credit markets plays an important role in explaining this stylized fact: business cycle fluctuations in aggregate risk sharing are more pronounced in states in...

The impact of global climate change on health is not well understood. Besides the direct channel of increasing temperatures, there is a potentially more harmful one: through an increase in extreme weather incidents. We offer the first evidence on the effect of natural disasters on pregnancy...

Nineteenth century white US statures varied with nutrition, disease exposure, and the physical environment. An additional explanation for stature growth is vitamin D production. Vitamin D is produced internally by the synthesis of cholesterol and sunlight in the epidermis. However, studies that...

This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...

Trends in BMI values are estimated by centiles of the US adult population by birth cohorts 1886-1986 stratified by ethnicity. The highest centile increased by some 18 to 22 units in the course of the century while the lowest ones increased by merely 1 to 3 units. Hence, the BMI distribution...