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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

Financial policymaking after crises : public vs. private interests

Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; De Grauwe, Paul - 2021

We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542146

Global cycles : capital flows, commodities, and sovereign defaults, 1815-2015

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph - 2016 - This draft: January 13, 2016

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421571

The International Monetary Fund : 70 years of reinvention

Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015 - This draft: December 10, 2015

A sketch of the International Monetary Fund's 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a "demand driven" theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011406766

The effects of systemic banking crises in the inter-war period

Rocha, Bruno T. da; Solomou, Solomos - 2015

This paper examines the time-profile of the impact of systemic banking crises on GDP and industrial production using a panel of 24 countries over the inter-war period and compares this to the post-war experience of these countries. We show that banking crises have effects that induce medium-term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496916

Political accountability during crises : evidence from 40 years of financial policies

Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; Minaudier, Clement - 2024

We show that politicians facing a binding term limit are more likely to engage in financial de-liberalisation than those facing re-election, but only in the wake of a financial crisis. In particular, they implement policies that tend to favour incumbent financial institutions over the general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015101908

Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902

Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy : a counterfactual analysis

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528313

Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750

Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of Its effects

Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206629