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Central bank independence and conservatism under uncertainty : substitutes or complements?
Hefeker, Carsten; Zimmer, Blandine - 2011
The paper examines the optimal combination of central bank independence and conservatism in the presence of uncertain … bank's degree of inde-pendence and conservatism so as to minimise society's loss function. We find that the optimal … combination between independence and conservatism is not necessarily characterised by substitutability. When uncertainty about the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010174
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The role of political institutions for the effectiveness of central bank independence
Hielscher, Kai; Markwardt, Gunther - 2011
This paper empirically studies the impact of the quality of political institutions on the link between central bank independence and inflation. Making use of data on the evolution of central bank independence over time and controlling for possible nonlinearities, we employ interaction models to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009012047
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Causal effects of countercyclical interest rates : evidence from the classical gold standard
Mitchener, Kris; Pina, Gonçalo - 2022
We estimate the causal impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and international commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013183777
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Monetary policy analysis in real-time : vintage combination from a real-time dataset
Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - 2011
This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011352
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Structural distortions and decentralized fiscal policies in EMU
Beetsma, Roel; Bovenberg, Ary Lans - 2001
The combination of discretionary monetary policy, labor-market distortions and nominal wage rigidity yields an inflation bias as monetary policy tries to exploit nominal wage contracts to address labour-market distortions Although an inflation target eliminates this inflation bias, it creates a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398780
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Monetary policy and the stock market : time-series evidence
Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2016
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566444
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Monetary policy rules in emerging countries : is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, A. Nazif; Helmi, … - 2016
This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011497748
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Speed limit policies : the output gap and optimal monetary policy
Walsh, Carl E. - 2001
In a standard New Keynesian model, a myopic central bank concerned with stabilizing inflation and changes in the output gap will implement a policy under discretion that replicates the optimal, timeless perspective, precommitment policy. By stabilizing output gap changes, the central bank...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408406
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Globalisation and the slope of the Phillips curve
Kohlscheen, Emanuel; Moessner, Richhild - 2021
We study the effects of globalisation on the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve for CPI inflation, based on a broad panel of 35 countries and controlling for possibly non-linear exchange rate effects. We find that the output gap generally has a significant positive effect on inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653311
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Time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle : a comprehensive investigation
Reif, Magnus - 2021
This paper provides insights into the time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle over the last five decades. To do so, I employ an open-economy time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility, which I estimate by quasi-Bayesian techniques. The reduced-form analysis reveals...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607593