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Does U.S. monetary policy respond to macroeconomic uncertainty?

Gomez, Thomas; Piccillo, Giulia - 2023

We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014265941

Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? : evidence based on a new data set

Dreher, Axel (contributor); Sturm, Jan-Egbert (contributor); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003499549

An empirical investigation into exchange rate regime choice and exchange rate volatility

Berger, Helge; Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Haan, Jakob de - 2000

We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94.We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781534

Monetary commitment, institutional constraints and inflation : empirical evidence for OECD countries since the 1970s

Freytag, Andreas (contributor); … - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003497804

Post-Thatcher fiscal strategies in the UK : an interpretation

Hughes Hallett, Andrew (contributor) - 2004

Fiscal policy in Britain has changed radically since the Keynesianism of the 1960s and 1970s. After a passive period under monetarism of the 1980s, fiscal policy is said to have adopted a leadership role with long term objectives (low debt, the provision of public services/ investment, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002524201

Does conservatism matter? : a time series approach to central banking

Berger, Helge; Woitek, Ulrich - 1999

The empirical literature on central banking has found measures of central bank independence/conservatism to be … and conservatism. We avoid these shortcomings by estimating a single-country time series model for the German Bundesbank …. We find that an increase in central bank conservatism leads to higher short-term interest rates and a more activist …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781685

IMF credit: how important are political factors? : a robustness analysis

Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Berger, Helge; Haan, Jakob de - 2002

We test whether, in addition to economic conditions, IMF credit is influenced by political factors. On the basis of a panel model for 128 countries over the period 1972-1998, we find that debt service scaled to exports, international reserve holdings scaled to imports and economic growth, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408821

Pegxit pressure : evidence from the classical gold standard

Mitchener, Kris; Pina, Gonçalo - 2016

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011568741

Pulling up the tarnished anchor : the end of silver as a global unit of account

Fernholz, Ricardo T.; Mitchener, Kris; Weidenmier, Marc D. - 2017

We use the demise of silver-based standards in the 19th century to explore price dynamics when a commodity-based money ceases to function as a global unit of account. We develop a general equilibrium model of the global economy with gold and silver money. Calibration of the model shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011646314

The euro crisis and economic growth : a novel counterfactual approach

Terzi, Alessio - 2019 - This Draft: 25 June 2019

Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033212