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Trade interdependence, arming and the choice between war and peace

Garfinkel, Michelle Robin; Syropoulos, Constantinos - 2025 - Current Version: March 29, 2025

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015371932

Hegemonic globalization

Broner, Fernando; Martin, Alberto; Meyer, Josefin; … - 2025

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic … promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon …, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015420366

ANOVA-HDFE : fast variance decomposition with high-dimensional fixed effects and an application to trade flows

Adam, Hanna L.; Larch, Mario; Nower, Michael - 2025

Performing an analysis of variance (ANOVA) on a large dataset spanning many dimensions becomes computationally challenging or even infeasible. We develop a new, fast procedure, ANOVA-HDFE, which uses sequential linear regressions and builds on recent advances in regression analysis with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015447991

The sustainability of empire in global perspective : the role of international trade patterns

Bonfatti, Roberto - 2012

European empires had two key economic aspects: the extraction of colonial wealth by colonizers, and the relevance of trade for the colonial economies. I build a simple model of decolonization that puts these two elements at centre stage. By controlling policy in the colony, the mother country...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009570582

Trade, trees, and contingent trade agreements

Harstad, Bård - 2022

Can trade agreements motivate environmental conservation? I first present a model whereby the government in the South expands its production capacity (e.g., deforest) before trading with the North. After deriving negative relationships between tariff reductions and conservation, I show how all...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822104

The trade impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

Liu, Xuepeng; Ornelas, Emanuel; Shi, Huimin - 2021

Using a gravity-like approach, we study how Covid-19 deaths and lockdown policies affected countries' imports from China during 2020. We find that a country's own Covid-19 deaths and lockdowns significantly reduced its imports from China, suggesting that the negative demand effects prevailed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533941

The variation of gravity within countries (or 15 reasons why gravity should be estimated with domestic trade flows)

Yotov, Yoto - 2021

The gravity equation is the workhorse model for analysis of bilateral trade flows. Despite solid theoretical foundations and clear gains from theory-consistent policy analysis, there are still gaps between gravity theory and empirics. This paper focuses on domestic trade flows, and I argue that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510016

Kyoto and carbon leakage : an empirical analysis of the carbon content of bilateral trade

Aichele, Rahel; Felbermayr, Gabriel - 2011

Has the Kyoto Protocol induced carbon leakage? We conduct the first empirical ex-post evaluation of the Protocol. We derive a theoretical gravity equation for the CO2 content of trade, which accounts for intermediate inputs, both domestic and imported. The structure of our new panel database of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009383458

The impacts of the dollar-renminbi exchange rate misalignment on the China-United States commodity trade : an asymmetric analysis

Ferjani, Sabrine; Saafi, Sami; Nouira, Ridha; Rault, … - 2022

Contrary to most existing studies of the literature that assumed that the effects of real exchange rate (RE) misalignment on trade flows are symmetric, this paper considers a more general and realistic framework allowing for possible asymmetric effects. We use monthly time-series data over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013177135

Do China and Russia undermine US sanctions? : evidence from DiD and event study estimation

Gutmann, Jerg; Neuenkirch, Matthias; Neumeier, Florian - 2022

A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455721