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Sudden stop: when did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?
Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla; Link, Sebastian - 2020
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249044
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ROC and PRC approaches to evaluate recession forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014284725
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A critique of the literature on the US financial debt crisis
Stein, Jerome L. - 2010
leverage, the optimum and excessive risk and the probability of a debt crisis. The theoretically founded early warning signals … crisis ; optimal leverage and debt ratios ; Congressional Oversight Panel ; Case-Shiller index …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003936616
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The Eurozone needs exit rules
Fahrholz, Christian; Wójcik, Cezary - 2012
strengthen the EZ through at least four channels. -- sovereign debt crisis ; Eurozone ; Euro ; exit rules ; bail-out ; political …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009570716
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The Greek debt crisis : likely causes, mechanics and outcomes
Arghyrou, Michael Georgiou; Tsoukalas, John D. - 2010
We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (a) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008757569
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How to handle the crisis in Greece? : empirical evidence based on a survey of economics experts
Potrafke, Niklas; Reischmann, Markus Josef - 2016
that experts from those Eurozone countries with high public debt-to-GDP-ratios were less likely to support the Grexit: when … the debt-to-GDP-ratio increased by one percentage point, the likelihood of survey participants favouring the Grexit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452844
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Fiscal sustainability in the EU after the global crisis : is there any progress?
Wysocki, Maciej; Wójcik, Cezary - 2018
comparison to the whole sample of 2004-2017 the strength of reaction of the primary deficit to a change of the public debt … breaks of 2-and 4 years lags: for the output gap in 2008 Q4, for the primary deficit in 2010 Q4 and for the public debt in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900847
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Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997
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Explaining fluctuations in the thrift savings fund daily balance at U.S. treasury
Skidmore, Mark; Alvayay Torrejón, Camila; Pare, David - 2021
"internally" held debt by the United States Department of Treasury. Our examination highlights two obscure facts about the G … turnover of the G-Fund results in about $55 trillion in debt reissuance annually; and 2) whenever the federal government is … constrained by a debt ceiling, the G-Fund balance drops dramatically and typically does not return to pre-constraint balance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514922
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Automatic stabilizers and economic crisis : US vs. Europe
Dolls, Mathias; Fuest, Clemens; Peichl, Andreas - 2009
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the tax and transfer systems in the European Union and the US to act as an automatic stabilizer in the current economic crisis. We find that automatic stabilizers absorb 38 per cent of a proportional income shock in the EU, compared to 32 per cent in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003922975