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(1975 - 2009). We find an increase in the growth rate of M1 during election months of about one tenth of a standard … is related to systemic vote buying which requires significant amounts of cash at election times. The finely timed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342347
uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal policies, and that this lowers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011511068
Through social media, politicians can personalize their campaigns and target specific groups of voters with an unprecedented precision. We assess the effects of such political micro-targeting by exploiting daily advertising prices on Facebook during the 2016 US presidential campaign. We measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206082
2008 US presidential election, the first political campaign where the internet played a key role. Drawing on data from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794226
autonomously by German municipalities. As election dates vary across local councils, the data allows us to disentangle effects … behavior as the growth rate of the local business tax is significantly reduced in the election year and the year prior to the … election, while it jumps up in the year after the election. This pattern turns out to be robust against a number of sensitivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488853
cycle manifests itself in election year tax cuts and savings on administration costs. Universal suffrage, where all adult … budget cycle manifests itself in election year hikes in capital spending and a reduction in current spending. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010237194
Members of parliament (MPs) often decide on their own salaries. Voters dislike self-serving politicians, and politicians are keen to gratify their voters. In line with the political business cycle theories, politicians thus may well delay deciding on increases in salaries until after elections....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517956
their re-election. This paper investigates the impact of electoral manipulation of the level and composition of fiscal … policy on incumbent’s re-election prospects. This impact is estimated for a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1972 … towards public investment can improve re-election prospects. On the contrary, election year manipulation via public investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009300692
This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514965
. The results show that the reversed CPI was about 0.4 points higher in election years than in other years, indicating that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011941292